Sonia Gandhi pulled out all stops to trigger an historic stride towards 33 per cent reservation for women in legislatures today but flung the future of the UPA government in the pit of intensifying tumult, making it plain to reluctant sections of her own party that some political risks were worth taking.
Unrelenting Upper House dissenters muscled out by marshals, the Rajya Sabha passed the reservation amendment by a merciless 186-1 vote this evening, but the weight of that majority barely reflected the resistance the move is up against.
Apart from the Samajwadi Party (SP), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and a section of the Janata Dal (United), Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamul Congress, too, broke away late in the day, protesting that it had not been consulted and insisting on a quota for minorities.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s government was liberally lauded by the bill’s many proponents — the majority of them from the Opposition BJP and Left — but the clamour of trouble rang loud above the cheer.
Even so, it was clear Sonia was determined to push through her initiative, even at the risk of jeopardising UPA II. Asked whether the move was worth risking the life of the government, Sonia told NDTV: “Well, we are aware of the risks. Whenever revolutionary steps are taken, there are risks involved and we have taken them into account. But some things are more important.”
Sonia also made to dispel the impression that her personal choices had run ahead of political imperatives and that she overrode influential sections of her party, including the Prime Minister and several senior ministers, who were in favour of factoring in immediate and long-term risks to the government before proceeding with the bill.
“It is not only my decision, there are senior party leaders, the Prime Minister, Pranab Mukherjee…. In politics, there are always risks… things may go one way or the other… but the larger picture has to be taken into consideration,” she said.
But nerves have been jangled in the Congress, Sonia’s que sera sera confidence notwithstanding. She herself admitted indirectly that sections of the party were not in favour of bulldozing the legislation through at the cost of losing key allies in the Lok Sabha.
Off the record, Congress leaders poured forth their apprehensions. “We have just about started the second term of this government and we are faced with a massive crisis that could eventually bring the government down; after all, the BJP and the Left are not going to bail us out from future trouble.”
Prime Minister Singh appeared visibly cognisant of the dark cloud attached to the silver lining his party boss had resolved to etch on legislative annals. His demeanour in the Rajya Sabha today was a stark contrast to the beaming champ who emerged from the nuclear deal trust vote two summers ago flashing a Formula One V-sign.
He sat sullen in his chair, belying any sense of history erupting around him, haunted by the crises that now await him within and outside Parliament.
For a start, the budget needs to be passed. The rupture with the SP and the RJD will most certainly become a recurrent headache in the Rajya Sabha where the Congress does not even enjoy the thin excess of numbers it still has in the Lok Sabha.
Tomorrow, Singh’s majority in the Lok Sabha will be formally slashed when Lalu Prasad and Mulayam Singh post their withdrawal of support to Rashtrapati Bhavan. Mamata’s Trinamul, worried over the bill’s impact on its minority votebank in Bengal, is in a fit that could take unpredictable turns, though she is unlikely to withdraw support. Individual supporters like Asaduddin Owaisi of Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen have turned their backs firmly on the government.
That’s only the story of allies Manmohan Singh has. Come key discussions on the budget — or the raging price rise — and the UPA will find itself matted by the BJP and the Left.
As the bill was being put to vote before a kangaroo court-like Rajya Sabha, Lalu Prasad stepped down the Parliament stairs to call all-out war against the Congress and the UPA. “The way they have behaved today, dragging MPs out of the House, reminds us of the Emergency. Parliament has been turned into a thana (police station).”
The RJD leader, flanked by Mulayam Singh, left few in doubt they would make the Lok Sabha an even more intense barrier for the bill. “At the moment they are passing it in a House where the reservation does not even apply,” he said mockingly of the proceedings in the Rajya Sabha. “Let it come to the Lok Sabha, we shall see. Dilli abhi bahut door hai.”
But it isn’t merely a parliamentary battle that worries large sections of the Congress and the UPA; it is the possibility that OBC and minority protagonists like Lalu Prasad and Mulayam could use this opportunity to unleash a new tide in the Hindi heartland and upset the Congress’s rebuilding plans.
OBCs have never been traditional votaries of the Congress but the party is eager to win back the support of Muslims as part of its bid to regain foothold in states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Congress managers, Sonia included, were at pains to stress that the law in the making “does not prevent backward or Muslim women” from taking advantage to seek empowerment, but many in the party fear that the argument is already being won by Lalu Prasad and Mulayam.
